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What’s in the cards at EBACE?

19/05/2014 by Cdr. Bud Slabbaert

How serious can we take the various industry forecasts? When it comes to responding to an issue, a column writer is often hung up between Shakespeare’s “I’m not to please thee with my answer” and “Give thy thoughts no tongue”. Forecasts can make some people obscenely loaded and others obscenely depressed.

Don’t let statistics rule the business, let the business rule the statistics! If the business is on a East-West horizontal course, then find a business development oriented individual who can turn it towards the North by actively networking and opening doors. It is nice to have tailwind but in order to rise to levels, one need to use headwind first. Entrepreneurs and pioneers know that only the proactive bird catches the worm; the reactive bird doesn’t, no matter how early he gets up.

Uptrend regardless

Too often forecasters say that they are ‘carefully optimistic’. It is a different way of saying “We don’t know, we hope for the best but suggest that you don’t put those hopes too high.” It is like the weatherman’s forecast for the day: “Partly sunny with some clouds and an occasional shower” which should please the makers of white umbrellas that are equally good for sun as for rain protection. When the statistics show that the figures are up month-to-month but they are down year-to-year, forecasters may say that there is an uptrend regardless. And if the year-to-year figures are up but they are down month-to-month, then there is still an uptrend but with a seasonal down.

Aviation industry forecasting may have some similarities with weather forecasting, and is comparable with the so-called ‘analog’ technique of weather forecasting. This technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event, which is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event. What makes it a difficult technique to use is that there is rarely a perfect analog for an event in the future. Yet, by cleverly using statistics, industry analysts can always create a projection that makes one feel as good. Aviation industry forecasters are praised and frequently quoted where it suits best in a presentation and they sort of determine the climate of the industry. However, meteorologists know that climate is what we expect and weather is what we get.

Maybe it’s because aviation operations are particularly sensitive to the weather and therefore accurate weather prediction is essential. Low ceilings, updrafts, crosswinds, ice, sea level pressure, obscurations to vision, and many other factors need continuous observation and updated reporting. One has to keep in mind though that doing business is not about flying or sitting on a cloud. My advice to EBACE attendees is: Don’t let statistics rule the business, let the business rule the statistics! Network harder. My advice to forecasters: Try harder!

Optional solution

Of course, out of all fairness, I also have an optional solution for those individuals who disagree with me. I know of an island in the Caribbean called St.Tosia where they have “Docdoc Lizard Oil with Bull Sacrifice” for people seeking prosperity and financial advancement. It has become very popular during the recession among spiritual stock market speculators. They are claiming that during economic turbulence, the brew has cured them of everything from depression to seizures by applying the elixir behind both ears and let it have its effect between the ears. “Docdoc Lizard Oil with Bull Sacrifice” comes in elegant boutique style bottles with a little glossy black card hanging from a shiny golden ribbon at the bottleneck with just two words on it in gold embossed Trebouchet lettering: “Good Luck”.

By Cdr. Bud Slabbaert